Baltimore Ravens -7.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers - Pitt QB Big Ben out for game and untested rookie trying to replace him for must win game in Baltimore. Don’t think so. Ravens 27 Steelers 13
New England Patriots +1.5 at New Orleans Saints - I bet this game when it opened at +3 but since I got flak from Blanchette and Gibbs for putting up stale lines, will put today’s line! Pats 46 Saints 10
YTD Top 2 Record vs Spread 9-13; Past 105 Top 2 Picks: 63-42 = 60.0%
Mark and Danny Bel40% Incorrect
In Bill I trust, but I went through the trouble of verifying that he made the CORRECT decision in going for it on 4th and 2, despite expert opinions from almost everyone else (including Rodney Harrison and Ted Bruiski).
In case you haven’t had a chance to hear my Friday radio show, if I declare something is http://TheCorrectAnswer.com and you can show me why it is incorrect, I will award you or your favorite charity $1000. For example, school vouchers will improve education, etc. proof at http://www.friedmanfoundation.org/
I loved the call at the time in Indy and even more so now. The following article at http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html summarizes the points why the probability of making that 1st down (and then winning the game by using up the clock) was MUCH higher than the increased probability of Colts scoring a TD from the Pats 28 rather than their own 28.
Bravo Bill! You can’t win every game or bet, but you can at least put the probability in your favor!
Top Three Pics This Week!
Pitt -10 at KC - Pitt has huge talent advantage over KC. As Pats fans my recall, Cassell had his worse game vs Pitt last year. Pitt should be angry after loss to Bengals last week and KC D should be perfect fodder for them. KC has allowed averages of 444.3 yrds and 30 pts in losing last three at home and are 0-4 there overall. KC’s rush D has also allowed an ave of 152.3 rushing yards in last 6 games overall.
San Diego at Denver - There is no line due to uncertain playing status of Kyle Orton (ankle) We expect SD to be favored between 3-7 pts. SD has won 4 straight defeating NYG and Philly in their last 2. Denver has dropped 3 straight. SD is looking to avenge a Week 6 loss to Denver 34-23. Chris Simms is expected to go if Orton cannot. Denver’s rush D has struggled last 3 weeks allowing an ave of 157.3 on the ground.
NY Giants -7 vs Atlanta Falcons - Giants been playing tough against good teams but Falcons starting to fade, especially with an injured Michael Turner.
Best of the rest - Indy -1 at Balt, Pats -10.5 vs Jets, Green Bay -6 vs SF
Mark & Danny
YTD Top 2 Record vs Spread 8-11; Past 102 Top 2 Picks: 62-40 = 60.8%
We’re approximately Bel40% Incorrect and seem to be even better near the end of each season and playoffs…
Patriots 42 Colts 3.
Pats dominated last weekend even though didn’t cover the 10.5 spread with the 27-17 beat down of the Dolphins. Colts been struggling as of late, barely winning AT HOME to an awful 49ers team and inconsistent Texans team. Take the 3 points and laugh all the way to the Super Bowl. (Pats still getting generous odds of 5.85 to 1 at TheGreek.com)
Patriots -10.5 vs Miami Dolphins - Historically been a tough game for Pats but if you dig deeper, Pats may blow them out. Miami is 29th of 32 teams in passing yards allowed and have lost CB Will Allen for the year. Dolphins are starting two rookies at CB and 1 at safety. Miami’s pass D has been torched by NO, Indy, SD and Jets in 2nd half vs Jets. If Brady stays hot, Patriots may not lose another home game for years…and may even run the table this year on road vs Colts (we’ll be there again!) and Saints.
SF -4 vs Tenn - SF has been playing competively last few games with close losses to Hou and Indy. Their pass rush harrassed Manning last week. SF has 2nd best rush D which should slow down Chris Johnson. Titans could be satiated after last week’s win vs Jaqs.
Possible upsets specials, Hou+9 and Car +13
Mark (& Danny) - YTD Top 2 Record vs Spread 7-9; Past 99 Top 2 Picks: 61-38 = 61.6%
YTD Top 2 Record vs Spread 7-7; Past 97 Top 2 Picks: 61-36 = 62.9%
NY Giants PickEM at Philly Eagles - NY lost to tough teams but Philly lost to the Raiders and barely covered as one of our other picks last week (making us 4 for 4 vs spread) against a poor Redskins team. Even though Philly needs game more (key indicator!), don’t think they have the mojo that NY has going for it. Westbrook also won’t play due to concussion last week.
Jacksonville Jags +3 at Tenn Titans - Vince Young gets 1st start of season but his skills as a QB have not successfully transferred to NFL. Looked pathetic against Pats in limited action. Everyone will see why Jeff Fisher hadn’t started him over Kerry Collins.
ps - Seek thumb wrestler to overtake me and become the new champion. $250 prize on two of three match. Donation to challenge champ? Only $25. 10 to 1 odds.