Pick another winner you say? We selected 23 out of last 29 Picks against the spread. A surprising 79% Correct with a standard deviation of 9% given this binomial distribution in which the StandardDev=sqrt(p*q/n) where p=.50 (probability of correct) and q=.50 (probability of incorrect) and sample size n=29. This confidence interval analysis proves with over 99% certainty (our 79% is more than 3 standard deviations from mean of 50%) that we are indeed better than a coin flip, or your typical sports journalist.

Our Pick of the Week? Indianapolis Colts -9 vs San Diego Chargers - EEEEZZZZZ. Blowout. Manning threw 6 interceptions earlier in season at San Diego, and they STILL almost won! Superior Colts won’t let it happen again. Final Score 56-10.

Others: NY Giants +8 at Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers -8 vs Seattle Seahawks with banged up QB and WR Branch, Jax Jags+14 at The New England Patriots (but best team ever Pats probably win again). I’ll try to bring good luck to our beloved Pats who face a hot Jax Jaguars team this Sat pm. Will the 2007 Pats be able to ensure their greatness for many generations to come? Please add your opinion and picks in comments section below for a chance at free Patriot tickets next season! ps - Did you google “2007 NFL MVP Tom Brady” in quotes yet? You’ll be surprised!

The Belforti Bros have selected TheCorrectAnswer vs the spread in 20 out of the last 25 games! (see previous posts including comments sections to verify). Our only loss last week was Patriots over Giants by 13, but since we did predict Pats over 11.5 regular season wins as our Pick of the Year, maybe we got a bit TOO excited. Will our 80% hit rate continue thru the playoffs? Probably not, but hopefully we’ve earned your attention again this year as we historically are well over 60% near end of the regular season and playoffs. Please leave your picks in comments section below!

Subject to change before kickoff:
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs Jacksonville Jaguars - Although Jags beat up on Pitts in front of their fans a few weeks ago, Steelers will be primed for revenge, and have never lost to a team at home twice in a season. Future Hall of Famer Big Ben steps up again.

San Diego -9.5 vs Tennessee - Huge pressure on SD to win playoff game after disaster against receiver-less (toothless) Patriots last year. Kerry Collins better passer than Young but still not enough to overcome hot & hungry Chargers.

Tampa Bay -3 vs NY Giants - Rested Bucs force Eli Manning into mistakes. Giants left their best game on field last week vs Pats.

Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Washington Redskins - Matt Hassleback vs Todd Collins? Take home team Seahawks to beat over-rated Skins.

Merry Christmas to you all! We Belforti Bros have heated up as usual this time of the year and provided early Christmas gifts to our loyal readers of http://football.belforti.org.

Our blogged 14-3 record against the spread in Week 12 (5-1), Week 13 (2-2), Week 14 (4-0) and Week 15 (3-0) earned us a documented winning percentage of 82.4%

Moreover, if you do a google search on “2007 NFL MVP Tom Brady” in parentheses, you will find my blog on the 1st page. I predicted and wagered on this fact back in August.

Corporate media claims to bring you the news AS it happens, tainted and filtered as they do. On the other hand, we bring you the news BEFORE it happens. http://www.football.belforti.org/2007/08/24/belforti-bros-pick-of-yearnew-england-patriots-over-115-regular-season-wins/

Tom Brady won’t be running for President this year , not until around 2028 after he has won at least 5 more SB rings, Therefore, you should vote for either the surging libertarian congressman Ron Paul (R) or long-shot Patriotic Mike Gravel (D) in the 2008 primary, assuming you love this country and want to choose http://TheCorrectAnswer.com.

If you believe one of the other Presidential candidates is a better choice, perhaps you have not yet properly researched the candidates? Go to http://LeftRightAndCorrect.com for http://TheCorrectAnswer.com and listen in each Friday at high noon by streaming audio at the website or archived shows at bottom of home page.

God Meets Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and then Tom Brady:

God asks Peyton Manning first: What do you believe? Peyton thinks long and hard, looks God in the eye, and says, I believe in hard work, and in staying true to family and friends. I believe in giving. I always try to do right by my fans.

God can’t help but see the essential goodness of Manning, and offers him a seat to his left.

Then God turns to Tony Romo and says, What do you believe?Tony says, I believe passion, discipline, courage and honor are the fundamentals of life. I’ve always tried to be a true sportsman, both on and off the playing field.

God is greatly moved by Tony’s sincere eloquence, and offers him a seat to his right.

Finally, God turns to Tom Brady: ‘And you, Tom, what do you believe?

Tom replies, “I believe you’re in my seat.” “And you already know I also believe it is time for a new sweatshirt Coach.”

Week 16 Picks:

Washington +6.5 at Minnesota - Adrian Peterson slowed down by injury, exposing inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson to the mourning Redskins, who at least keep their playoff hopes alive.

Cleveland -2.5 at Cincinnati - QB Derek Anderson played at a Pro-Bowl level and shows why as he torches Bengal secondary on way to playoffs. Tough to make Pro Bowl in the AFC with at least 3 Hall of Fame QBs in front of you (Big Ben,Manning,Brady).
Where should Browns trade QB Brady Quinn for #1 and #3 draft picks and solid starter? Chicago, Miami, Kansas City, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Fran all need QB savior.

Miami +22 vs New England - Even though I’m a HUGE Pats fan, I tend to know when they are overvalued as they have mostly been in recent weeks. With a documented 13-1* record vs spread on games involving Pats, I tend to be correct (and even on the one loss vs Philly, I reversed myself and wagered on Philly in 2nd half). *The Belforti Bros may have been the first and certainly the last to pound the opening line on Pats -3.5 over Indy with TheGreek.com Sunday night after Skins blowout in Foxboro, which gave us the win in the 24-20 victory. One year ago in Miami, Colleen and I witnessed the last regular season loss by our Pats. Think Dolphins may have SOME fight left in them to keep it closer than 21.5 points with newly signed Bill Parcells evaluating them in Foxboro. Patriots should get up early and play questionable 2nd string QB Matt Cassel in 4th quarter to get him much needed experience.

Parlays: (not counted in calculating record vs spread since parlays are longshots)
Jets +8.5 at Tennessee - Underated Jets keep it close or win low scoring game.
1st half only: Carolina +7 vs Dallas and under 21.5. Romo’s thumb problem will hurt Cowboys’ chance to get humiliated again by Pats in Arizona.

See comments section below for our future week’s picks and yours? Please add your predictions for the historical record.

Week 14: Patriots -10.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers - As predicted pre-season, http://www.football.belforti.org/2007/04/08/nfl-futures-picks-2007/ , this 2007 Pats team may well go undefeated and I believe it is the NFL’s best ever. On any given Sunday there is a chance for an upset but given the last two weeks of close calls, the home team will be plenty motivated to get back to their dominant ways. Pats by 17 or more as usual vs inconsistent Steelers (who ended Pats 21 game winning streak in 2004). Slim chance for let down here against 2nd or 3rd best team in league.

Saints -4 at Atlanta - Saints are still in wildcard picture as they are one game behind Arizona, Detroit and Minn. Atlanta lost 3 straight and Saints have lost 3 of 4. Chris Redmond is starting at QB for Falcons. Saints have won 3 straight vs Falcons. Brees vs Redmond is a big mismatch. The Saints will go marching in for a victory here.

Browns -3.5 at Jets - Browns are tied with Tenn for 2nd wilcard spot in AFC. This is a good chance to gain a game as Titans play SD this week. Clev has won 5 of 7 games but lost tough one to Arizona last week. Browns have also struggled on rd where they are 2-4. Jets have played better beating Pitt and Miami over the last few weeks. Jets WR are still questionable and Clev D is awful giving up 388 pts and are 30th vs the pass. Browns have great offense though ranking 6th if total off and 4th in points scored. Brother Mark likes Tribe and wishes Browns well. Clev continues on playoff run.

Seattle -7 vs Arizona - Big game for both teams. Arizona would claim NFC wilcard berth if they started today and is tied with Detroit. Their two receivers are hurting though. Seahawks win division with a win. Seattle has won 4 straight home games vs Cards by ave of 14.3 pts. Seattle has won 32 of 39 at home and won their last 3 home games by ave of 19.3 pts. They are 5-1 at home. Ariz has played well lately winning 3 of 4 and beat Seattle 23-20 in Arizona earlier this year. It will be tough fight early but Seattle pulls away with 10th ranked passing off vs Arizona 24th rank D but missing safety. Seattle wins another NFC West Division. Cha ching.

Indy -6.5 vs Jax - Jax at 8-2 lead the AFC wilcard race but are only 1 game behind 9-2 Indy in AFC South. Jax has already lost to Indy 29-7 in Jax. Jax has beaten Tenn, SD and Buff last 3 weeks.Garard is playing well.Colts have won two games in a row after losing back to back games. Last game was 31-13 win vs Alt on Turkey Day.LT Ugoh returned to practice Wed, Jax has leagues 5th worst pass D allowing 258.7 ypg vs Colts #9 pass off. Colts are 4-1 at home and have lost only once vs Jax in 6 home games. Jax is 3-10 vs Indy. Colts have also have 8 game home winning streak vs AFC South teams. Colts win easily.

SD -6 at KC - Damon Huard starts at QB for KC and Larry Johnson is out again so rookie RB Koly Smith will start again. This teams are going in opposite directions. SD holds 1 game lead over Denver in AFC West. SD lost to KC 30-16 in first game but since then have won 5 of 7 including beating Balt last wk 32-14. KC has lost 4 straight and 5 of 7. KC lost to Oak 20-17 last week. SD has struggled on the rd going 1-4 which troubles us. They have also lost 2 straight and 9 of last 10 in KC, however, KC has dropped 3 in a row at home and are 2-4 this year. They were a combined 13-3 at home the last 2 years going into this year. KC has won 19 of their last 20 vs SD in KC. Throw home stats out the window. We believe Chargers are more talented team, are playing better and are seeking revenge for first loss vs KC. Take Chargers on their playoff run.

Philadelphia -3 vs Seattle - Philly/Feeley showed us something in Foxboro last Sunday. Look for them to continue momentum in this “must-win game” against an inconsistent Seahawk team.

NY -1 at Chi - Manning threw 3 Ints for TDs as the Giants were beaten soundly by Minn last wk 41-17 while Bears kept their playoff hopes alive by luckily beating Denver 37-34 with 2 Hester TD returns. The Bears at 5-6 are in the mix with a bunch of teams behind Det and NY for wildcard. Giants are 4-1 on rd and have a 4 game road winning streak. The other Adrian Peterson fills in for Cedric Benson for the Bears who is on I.R. In a very tough game with Bears giving all they have, we still like GIANTS to prevail.