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Belichick Made Correct Call & Belforti Bros Picks of the Week 11

November 21st, 2009


In Bill I trust, but I went through the trouble of verifying that he made the CORRECT decision in going for it on 4th and 2, despite expert opinions from almost everyone else (including Rodney Harrison and Ted Bruiski).

In case you haven’t had a chance to hear my Friday radio show, if I declare something is http://TheCorrectAnswer.com and you can show me why it is incorrect, I will award you or your favorite charity $1000. For example, school vouchers will improve education, etc. proof at http://www.friedmanfoundation.org/

I loved the call at the time in Indy and even more so now. The following article at http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html summarizes the points why the probability of making that 1st down (and then winning the game by using up the clock) was MUCH higher than the increased probability of Colts scoring a TD from the Pats 28 rather than their own 28.

Bravo Bill! You can’t win every game or bet, but you can at least put the probability in your favor!

Top Three Pics This Week!
Pitt -10 at KC - Pitt has huge talent advantage over KC. As Pats fans my recall, Cassell had his worse game vs Pitt last year. Pitt should be angry after loss to Bengals last week and KC D should be perfect fodder for them. KC has allowed averages of 444.3 yrds and 30 pts in losing last three at home and are 0-4 there overall. KC’s rush D has also allowed an ave of 152.3 rushing yards in last 6 games overall.

San Diego at Denver - There is no line due to uncertain playing status of Kyle Orton (ankle) We expect SD to be favored between 3-7 pts. SD has won 4 straight defeating NYG and Philly in their last 2. Denver has dropped 3 straight. SD is looking to avenge a Week 6 loss to Denver 34-23. Chris Simms is expected to go if Orton cannot. Denver’s rush D has struggled last 3 weeks allowing an ave of 157.3 on the ground.

NY Giants -7 vs Atlanta Falcons - Giants been playing tough against good teams but Falcons starting to fade, especially with an injured Michael Turner.

Best of the rest - Indy -1 at Balt, Pats -10.5 vs Jets, Green Bay -6 vs SF

Mark & Danny
YTD Top 2 Record vs Spread 8-11; Past 102 Top 2 Picks: 62-40 = 60.8%
We’re approximately Bel40% Incorrect and seem to be even better near the end of each season and playoffs…

Filed under: Football

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