Patriots 42 Colts 3.
Pats dominated last weekend even though didn’t cover the 10.5 spread with the 27-17 beat down of the Dolphins. Colts been struggling as of late, barely winning AT HOME to an awful 49ers team and inconsistent Texans team. Take the 3 points and laugh all the way to the Super Bowl. (Pats still getting generous odds of 5.85 to 1 at TheGreek.com)
November 16th, 2009 - 9:13 pm
In Bill I trust, and think he made the CORRECT decision in going for it on 4th and 2, despite expert opinions from almost everyone else (including Rodney Harrison and Ted Bruiski).
The following article below by Joe Posnanski and at http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html summarizes the points why the probability of making that 1st down (and then winning the game by using up the clock) was MUCH higher than the increased probability of Colts scoring a TD from the Pats 28 rather than their own 28.
Bravo Bill! You can’t win every game or bet, but you can at least put the probability in your favor!
Now, however, I will probably be biting my fingernails Week 17 in Houston when Pats need that 12th win for me to win my big futures bet of at least 11.5 regular season wins!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/11/16/belichick/index.html?xid=si_nfl