Carolina –6.5 vs Atlanta – On paper, Atlanta appears to be improved. Looking closely, their two wins have come against KC and Detroit. We are not impressed. When playing a tough team like the Bucs, they wilted. Matt Ryan was 13 of 33 for 158 yards and two picks vs Tampa. We look for more of the same while Delhomme and Steve Smith find their chemistry.
Dan late Pick of week: Cinci under 24 team total. No Carson Palmer, no points.
Mark picks San Diego giving 7 at Oakland. Dan likes New Orleans -4 vs San Fran.
YTD Records vs Spread: Top 2 Pics and Overall.
Dan: 4-2 and 10-5 Overall 67%; Since half way thru 2007 season, 36-15, 71%.
Mark: 4-2 and 10-4 Overall 71%
September 29th, 2008 - 3:52 pm
Late addition (counts toward both of our overall records):
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 vs Baltimore Ravens
Hi Friends,
Whether you lost $$ in the stock market on this historically significant day (Dow down most points ever, a “lucky” 777 points), or lost in the NFL football market yesterday, tonight you have a chance to make some of it back.
The Belforti Bros are still hot, Dan was 3-0 yesterday, as documented weekly on http://football.belforti.org ,and 39 wins & 15 losses = 72% vs spread since mid 2007. This winning percentage on 54 trials is more than 3 standard deviations from the norm of 50%. A statistician can perform a confidence interval assessment on this binomial distribution to determine that we ARE actually adding value with over 99% probability (99% confidence**),
** - The standard deviation of a binomial distribution is the square root of p=50% (0.5) times q=50% divided by n=sample size. One can conclude that we are NOT just getting lucky and that the actual mean of our picks is NOT just 50% or no better than a coin flip. Many other years of 60%+ performance also add confidence to this theory.
We both love the Pittsburgh Steelers -5 vs Baltimore Ravens.
Rookie Raven QB Joe Flacco is going to Pittsburgh to face a REAL team for the 1st time in his professional career (Cincinnati and Cleveland don’t really count this year). Pittsburgh lost to a tough Philly team and although they struggled to defeat the Browns in week 2, we think they’ll pound the punchless Ravens tonight. 24-6.
ps - Sorry if you lost a bundle today in stock market. I’m presently having my worst year EVER for my clients and myself, (1st losing calandar year since started my 401K plan in 1986), so I feel your pain.
Belforti Investments’ clients on average, however, made a hefty gain today given some of our positions. If curious, send me an email as I’m seeking new clients to replace some of that investment income I’m accustomed to making!
Why join me? If your portfolio earned a higher risk adjusted rate of return than my own combined IRAs over the past 10-15 years, I’ll add $10,000 to your account, but demand your investment advisor’s phone number!
Hint: It’s really not time IN the market, as the big brokerage firms advise you, it’s TIMING the market…..be careful out there….
Dan Belforti - Investment Manager
Belforti Investments - http://www.belforti.com
Political Talk Show Host - http://www.LeftRightAndCorrect.com
“Left, Right and Correct with Dan Belforti & Friends”
Belforti Bros Football - http://football.belforti.org
October 9th, 2008 - 11:11 pm
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