1) New England Patriots -10 vs Miami Dolphins - The 2nd of many blowouts the Dynastic Patriots will treat us to this season and beyond.
2) St. Louis Rams -3 at Green Bay Packers - Brett Favre has a concussion and should be a 2nd string QB at this point in his career. Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson are worthy of pro bowl in 2006.
Other Solid Picks:
Denver Broncos -3 vs Baltimore Ravens. I’m impressed with Denver defense after shutting down our beloved Patriots.
San Diego Chargers -3 vs Pittsburgh Steelers. Something still very wrong with Big Ben Rothisberger, who I predicted would win SB 40. I think the motorcycle accident shook his confidence, give him a year to recover.
Kansas City Chiefs -3 over Arizona Cardinals. Matt Leinart’s 1st start could be tough vs Ty Law and improved KC defense.
San Francisco 49ers -3 vs Oakland Raiders. Home team to rebound after embarrassing thrashing by Chiefs last week. Question: Raiders presently have worst offense in NFL history?
2 team: Panthers/Saints Parlay.
3 team parlay: Jets moneyline +260 at Jacksonville (have a good time at this game Dad!) parlayed with Buffalo -11 and under 35 in Chicago. Both underdogs have surprised me…they look almost average for a change.
October 8th, 2006 - 12:53 am
Good picks this week, particularly the Patriots who should treat the “new” Dolphins brutally and KC over Arizona. Without much of an offensive line and starting his first game, Leinart will not likely perform well.
October 12th, 2006 - 1:27 am
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This football web site made it on google’s radar for the 1st time today, good thing we had 3 wins and 3 ties and no losses on our 6 straight picks! Actually can make case for 5 wins and 1 tie since line was Pats -9.5 and Rams -2.5 just before kickoff.
Our 2006 season record on all wagered straight picks vs spread is well below our 3 yr 63% average with only 14 wins and 12 losses. Parlays, however, have been “prophet-able” with same won/loss record on 2 team parlays: 14 wins - 12 losses. 3 team parlays: 3 wins 3 losses. 4 team parlays: 1-3. 5+: 0-4.
ROI calculated at 11.1% thru Week 5 with 15 more weeks to go, season annualized at 44.3%.
By including expected futures wins thru Week 5, ROI increases to 35.3%. (ex. one can extrapolate that Pats will go over 10.5 wins and win division but I was clearly wrong that Tampa will win over 8 games). 2006 ROI annualized with futures gains at 141.3%
Net ROI for 2005 was 57.9%; 2004 was 47.2%; 2003 was 62.2%.
Dan & Mark
NFL Gurus